Notes on Current Developments in Syria: January 11, 2014

The battle between Islamist rebel groups and Al-Qaeda’s affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is intensifying, but there is more going on than the increasing number of casualties and bodies of the injured piling up in the hospital.

The way the battle is unfolding indicates that carving up territories is what’s stake at this stage than achieving a straight out victory of one side over the other. This might not have been the intention at the beginning, but this is where things seem to be heading at this stage on account of the logistics involved, the actual military capabilities of each side, and the involvement of the regime in the matter, which, as expected, is working out in favor of ISIS, in the city of Elbab north of Aleppo, for instance, the regime resumed bombardment of the city as soon as ISIS was kicked out, allowing ISIS troops to halt their retreat, regroup and lay siege to the city. This may not be highlighted by the media at this stage, but this is what activists on the ground are reporting.

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Syria and the perils of proxy war

Syria and the perils of proxy war – latimes.com.

Reducing the current proxy-war situation in Syria to a Saudi-Iranian competition over regional hegemony is a gross oversimplification and overlooks serious involvement by other actors, including Turkey, Qatar, Israel, U.S., France, the U.K. and Russia, to name but the most visible operators.  There is much at stake in Syria for many different powers around the world. The Saudi-Iranian proxy-war could not unfold without support, or lack thereof, from these other players.

Syria Militants Said to Recruit Visiting Americans to Attack U.S.

Syria Militants Said to Recruit Visiting Americans to Attack U.S. – NYTimes.com.

And here we go again: Building up a case for drone strikes, and for going back to doing business with Assad. I am not implying that the reports are false. On the contrary they are as true as those reports of Assad’s complicity in the chemical weapons attack and all the massacres perpetrated by his loyalist militias from the onset of this genocide to this very moment. But issuing an order for a drone attack is much easier for this administration than committing to a policy that can make a real difference on the ground. It creates the impression of doing something, while your main focus is to actually avoid entanglement. I am yet to hear a cogent argument showing how one can actually make a difference on the ground without being “entangled,” at least for a certain period of time, and for all the headaches that come with entanglement. Drone strikes against “certain rebels” while avoiding strikes against the Assad regime, even after they crossed all red lines, the one drawn by Obama and those delineated by international law, will only serve to make matters worse in Syria. Rebels are doing their best to combat extremists with no support from the U.S. But Assad has to go in order to really curtail spread of violence beyond borders of the country and the region.

عن الفوضى الخلّاقة والحِراك الشعبي في منطقة الشرق الأوسط الكبير

موقع “القدس العربي”

قامت مجموعة كبيرة من الباحثين الغربيين في العقد الأخير من القرن الماضي بطرح نظرية الفوضى الخلّاقة كوسيلة للدول الغربية للتعامل مع مجموعة من الصيرورات الموضوعية التي دلّت دراساتهم المختلفة أنها ستطرأ خاصة فيما يعرف عندهم باسم منطقة الشرق الأوسط الكبير. ولم يدعوا الباحثون إلى تفعيل هذه الفوضى بالضرورة، كما يزعم البعض، لكنهم وضعوا مجموعة من التصوّرات والسيناريوهات المختلفة بهدف مساعدة حكوماتهم على التعامل معها بطريقة تسمح لهم بتحقيق مصالح شعوبهم. الموضوع إذاً موضوع تخطيط وليس تآمر، وشتّان ما بين المفهومين.

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