Assad wins street victory but not the war

Quote in The Guardian:

“This is a dictatorship without a dictator,” a Damascus-based Western diplomat said. Ammar Abdulhamid, a human rights activist, agreed: “It’s a mafia. The capo di tutti capi has died but Michael Corleone [the tough son in the Godfather] is missing and Fredo [the weak son] is in charge.” … Abdulhamid, who has avoided prison so far, said: “It [the regime] is going to come crashing down. They are wishful dreamers if they think they can carry on. They are relics. They have lost their survival skills.”

A Mediocre Tap Dance!

Prelude: Fifty minutes of meaningless jabber paved the way for a five minute announcement that will almost likely require a couple of weeks worth of explanations and clarifications. Syrian troops will be “completely” withdrawn to the Bekaa Valley, in accordance with the Taif, and will then be withdraw to the Syrian-Lebanese borders in accordance with 1559.  Continue reading “A Mediocre Tap Dance!”

Auto-debaathification vs. Exo-debaathification!

Is the Syrian regime really serious about its announcement that it will execute a large-scale redeployment of its troops in Lebanon, perhaps in preparation for a complete withdrawal at a later date?

 

Hard to say. But if experience with this regime taught me anything, if precedents are taken into account, then the only thing I can do at this stage is to remain skeptical, skeptical until such time that the action promised actually takes place. Then, I still reserve the right to remain skeptical for a little while longer just in case our leaders took a counter-action that makes their first action meaningless.  Continue reading “Auto-debaathification vs. Exo-debaathification!”