The Hamas Factor!

Hamas’ electoral victory, although billed as a “surprise” or a “shock” by many newspapers, did not really come as a major surprise to most observers of Palestinian politics. In fact, the whole reason why Abu Mazin seemed to have entertained postponing the elections for a while was directly related to his firm conviction that holding the elections at this point in time will result in a surrounding victory by Hamas. Continue reading →

The Myriad Faces of Heresy!

“…it is highly unlikely that the Syrian regime will voluntarily effect any major changes in its general structure or its modus operandi. Half-hearted pressures on it to do so will probably not be enough. Still, a full-scale invasion with the goal of effecting a regime change, even with a good casus belli in hand, will most likely prove too problematic at this stage. Syria has a relatively new president who has been received with all due honors by many world leaders, including Spanish Prime Minister José Maria Aznar, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, German Prime Minister Gerhardt Schroeder, and French President Jacques Chirac. Syria’s relations with the world community are much more intricate and ambivalent than those of the Taliban or the Saddam regime, as we have noted earlier. The case against Syria will never be as clear-cut as that against Afghanistan or Iraq. A full-scale invasion of Syria would seem to require a U.S. administration that is even more oblivious to the rest of the world than the current Bush administration seems to be. Continue reading “The Myriad Faces of Heresy!” →

Mock Interview!

A friend of mine has put together this “mock interview” based on a number of public and private talks that I have been recently giving in a number of think tanks and institutions. It does a pretty good job in summarizing where I stand these days on the issue of regime change in Syria. Continue reading “Mock Interview!” →

The Coming Fuck Up!

Indeed, Hezbollah’s adventurism against Israel is going to create ample problems for the Syrian regime.

Serious problems, in fact, especially if we take under consideration the likelihood that Hezbollah’s activities are being coordinated in collusion with regime members. This is exactly what I was afraid of. In lull times, the regime tends to fall back on old habits and old behavioral patterns. Someone in the regime, I am sure, must think it absolutely brilliant to continue to use Hezbollah to apply pressure on Israel in the hope of jumpstarting the long stagnant peace talks with Syria. This is a complete misreading of the situation, of course. But this is exactly the kind of misreading that this regime has been in the habit of doing for many years now. This tendency is bound to get more pronounced as the regime gets more and more desperate. Continue reading “The Coming Fuck Up!” →