Managing Transition: Few Guidelines For A Velvet Revolution In Syria

Towards A Jasmine Revolution in Syria

(The paper was also presented during an opposition conference that was held in Washington, D.C. in late January, 2006)

The preceding four decades of the history of our country have been marked by tyrannical rule, unbridled corruption and gross mismanagement on part of the ruling military junta and their civilian lackeys. The last five years in particular have witnessed much political and economic adventurism by our current rulers, the so-called New Guard, with their policies leading to a further narrowing down of the power base of the regime. Indeed, it has become obvious now that the decision-making process was, in effect, reduced to a small and corrupt clique centered on the President and his immediate family members and friends. Continue reading “Managing Transition: Few Guidelines For A Velvet Revolution In Syria” →

Mock Interview!

A friend of mine has put together this “mock interview” based on a number of public and private talks that I have been recently giving in a number of think tanks and institutions. It does a pretty good job in summarizing where I stand these days on the issue of regime change in Syria. Continue reading “Mock Interview!” →

The Velvet Scenario!

You can try and try and try to wish the nasty incompetent Lion into some sort of a saintly efficient reformist figure, to no avail. Alchemy does not work. It never did. It never will. Transmogrification is a myth, and should it take place, somehow, it is more likely to work in reverse, transforming the saintly efficient reformist figure into a nasty incompetent lion.

Continue reading “The Velvet Scenario!” →

The Cow!

We have an old saying in Syria – when a cow collapses, its wannabe butchers increase in number.

Well, the Syrian regime has been on the verge of implosion for quite a while now, and it appears that many people are now taking notice of that. For despite the fact that by all objective standards, one would still expect the Syrian regime to be strong and in control, at teh very least for the lack of any serious internal contenders, the reality is the survivability of the regime, as the events of the last few years have amply demonstrated, needs to be measured on the basis of the intellectual capacity of the regime leaders, rather than any other “objective” factor. But on this basis we can safely conclude that the Syrian regime’s days are indeed numbered, even if there is no clear alternative to it but chaos. Continue reading “The Cow!” →