Conflict Watch, July 27, 2006


First posted on my short-lived blog Tharwalizations. 


Countdown for another regional disaster is currently taking place. Both Ethiopia and the Somali Sharia militias are arming themselves and a showdown seems to be looming. Eritrea is playing its part in an attempted pay back at Ethiopia over their previous entanglements not too long ago.


The fragile nature of the situation in Darfur continues to forebode ill for the efforts aimed at brining about a successful conclusion to the conflict. The recently peace agreement will not work on its own, some major developments need to take place on the grounds in order to bring the fighting to an end and allow relief efforts to reach the isolated communities where they are most needed.


Follow up is all needed to ensure the success of peace agreements. The end result is not the agreements themselves but the realities that they would create on the ground. It is amazing how many peace deals falter due to lack of follow up. Troubles in Aceh at this stage, and considering the recent environmental disasters that the provinces had suffered could easily lead to a new humanitarian crisis.


The Taliban are rearing their ugly heads again. The War on Terror’s classic and consummate victory seems more in tatters than ever before, because the follow up was lacking. Not enough aid was assigned for local development and reconstruction, and this allowed time for the Taliban to continue to find good recruitment conditions in enough parts of the country to start a new campaign. They will likely fail on the long run, but not before they make a mockery out of America’s most decisive victory in the War on Terror.