With too many parochial interests and too many corrupt politicians around few sanction regimes can ever achieve their intended goals, especially when they drag out for years. The same applies for wars, after a certain period conflicts become “stable” and self-sustaining as a result of a convergence of parochial interests. But conflicts remain unpredictable and often have too many unintended consequences. Those betting on “stabilizing” the Syrian conflict by transforming it into a contained low intensity conflict with minimal impact on neighboring countries are deluding themselves. The impact of the devolution of Syria will be felt globally, there are simply too many overlapping interests, too many players involved, and too many people watching and drawing lessons that may not too “kosher.”
The Ammar Abdulhamid Archive 