Deal or No Deal

VP Joseph Biden addressing participants in the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Soref Symposium at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington, DC on April 301, 2015, 7:30 pm. (Photo by Ammar Abdulhamid)

According to Jo Biden, in his dinner remarks to participants in the Washington Institute’ Soref Symposium yesterday, Iran can enrich enough uranium to build several nukes within 2-3 months. The proposed deal with its leaders will prevent this development, he said, by rolling the clock back on some components, and allowing for inspections and for a breakout notice of at least one year.

But all this begs the question facing us: if Iran’s leaders are truly so close to developing their own nukes, why give up now? What’s the risk for them in going the distance?

The possibility of facing more sanctions?

Will there really be enough outrage to allow for that? And how long can all these sanctions last anyway? Europe is already wavering on the issue. Moreover, the same logic used to pursue a deal with Iran at this stage can be used to justify engaging her once she goes nuclear. Isolation did not prevent North Korea from developing its nuclear program, and only served to increase the regime’s control over the population. More importantly, no matter what the world does, Iran is simply not that isolatable, especially under the prevailing geopolitical conditions in the region.

There is a logical disconnect here that no one is addressing. Be that as it may, the end result is more regional and global turmoil.

For other regional powers, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt among others, the mere fact that Iran has such an advanced program that she can produce her own nukes in 2-3 months, without a deal, or a year, with a deal, is sufficient cause for alarm, one which give them a strong reason to develop their own program, and Turkey for one is not waiting.