Iran’s Turkish Gold Rush

Iran’s Turkish Gold Rush.

With too many parochial interests and too many corrupt politicians around few sanction regimes can ever achieve their intended goals, especially when they drag out for years. The same applies for wars, after a certain period conflicts become “stable” and self-sustaining as a result of a convergence of parochial interests. But conflicts remain unpredictable and often have too many unintended consequences. Those betting on “stabilizing” the Syrian conflict by transforming it into a contained low intensity conflict with minimal impact on neighboring countries are deluding themselves. The impact of the devolution of Syria will be felt globally, there are simply too many overlapping interests, too many players involved, and too many people watching and drawing lessons that may not too “kosher.”

Putin’s Rearguard Battle

Shlomo Ben-Ami shines a light on the flaws in Vladimir Putin’s efforts to position Russia as a major world power. – Project Syndicate.

And here lies the problem: Putin’s sense of Hobbesian realism calls for the adoption of an approach to world politics that is in essence a struggle of all against all, while Obama’s realism encourages disengagement in the hope of avoiding such struggle, ceding one battle after another – the eventual result is to set the ground for a struggle for which no one is really prepared.

Cameron, Clegg and Miliband: fate of Syrian children hangs in the balance

Cameron, Clegg and Miliband: fate of Syrian children hangs in the balance | The Guardian.

This is mere grandstanding. Without peacekeepers on the ground willing to confront both regime and Al-Qaeda militias when necessary, no such access can be provided in most areas where humanitarian assistance is needed. But no one has been willing to volunteer peacekeepers, as no peacekeeping mission is possible without agreement of all sides. In the final analysis, nothing short of decapitating the two-headed monster (Assad and Al-Qaeda) feeding on our children can actually work.

The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad

The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad | Foreign Affairs.

In short, Putin wants no change in Syria, and his people will keep fighting for regime preservation in Geneva 2 and beyond, even as the country and the region implode. Caught between the ideological blinders of Obama and those of Putin, a rock and a hard place indeed, Syria has been lost and millions of her citizens are now paying the price. Acting in his own unique way, each leader managed to conjure up the worst case scenario had had dreaded all along, and since each is in the habit of running forward from his fuckups, the situation is bound to get worse. Regional meltdown is around the corner, and the fallouts will go global.