The Internal Dynamics of Syrian Politics

Lecture at the Brookings Institution

Syria has developed a reputation as an esoteric state because of the actions of its late President, Hafez el Asad. Asad’s rural beginnings, military education, and limited exposure to the West contributed to his deep familiarity with Syrian social and political culture. But, it also limited his understanding of ever-changing global realities, especially in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the West, Asad was, nonetheless, perceived as a political genius because Western knowledge of Syria was extremely limited. Continue reading “The Internal Dynamics of Syrian Politics” →

Stuck in the Bottleneck

Tharwa Editorial / Also published in the Daily Star under the title: “Prepare for when the Arab bottle breaks.”

When you are stuck in the neck of a bottle, it doesn’t matter how far you are from the bottom, or how close you come to the edge of freedom. There are no points of no return. As you struggle to free yourself, you can as easily fail and fall as succeed and climb out of the top. For those stuck in the neck, though, the option of not doing anything, of accepting their bondage, seems like the safest bet. But what happens when they realize that an overwhelming force may threaten to break the bottle? What is the safest bet then? Continue reading “Stuck in the Bottleneck” →

Taking it seriously

Those who think that the difficulties the Americans are having in Iraq are going to make them rethink their commitment to effecting serious change in the Middle East and adopt some kind of a neutral hands-off stance vis-à-vis regional developments are, simply put, deluding themselves. In fact, the invasion of Iraq promises to be merely the beginning of a long period of direct American interventionism in the region. Whatever difficulties the Americans are bound to encounter along the way, whatever changes should take place at the helm, substituting Democrats for Republicans, conservatives for liberals, doves for hawks, or vice versa, could affect the choice of the particular interventionist strategy to be deployed, but it will have no impact on the interventionist policy itself. The United States has no option but to intervene. Continue reading “Taking it seriously” →

Old guard faces crisis as heat turns on Syria

Quotes in The Guardian:

Before the war, Syria denied having extensive trade relations with Iraq, even though they were worth $2bn a year and factories had set up special production lines to cope with the extra demand.

It also denied receiving oil from Iraq worth $500m a year – or rather, said the pipeline was only being tested. Once the war came and the pipeline was cut off, Syria’s oil exports suddenly dropped by 100,000-150,000 barrels a day. Continue reading “Old guard faces crisis as heat turns on Syria” →