Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords

Prepared for a briefing that took place in Washington on January 15, 2013.

MAP OF CONFLICT

The regime is continuing its policy of holding on to big cities and main roads while surrendering the surrounding countryside to rebels. However, it seems inevitable now that the regime might be forced to relinquish its control over the north and northeast soon, a process that could begin within the next 2 to 3 months. This move will include Aleppo City, and the provinces of Deir Ezzor, Raqqa and Hassakeh. Continue reading “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords” →

The Creation of An Unbridgeable Divide

openDemocracy | 24 January 2013

Syria’s civil war is now strongly characterised by militias identifying along sectarian lines. The growing divide between Sunnis and Alawites has profound implications for Syria, and the Middle East. Continue reading “The Creation of An Unbridgeable Divide” →

Has the Arab Spring Lived Up to Expectations?

Contribution to “Has the Arab Spring Lived Up to Expectations?” published by the Woodrow Wilson Center.

For those who expected a fast and smooth transition to liberal democratic norms, the Arab Spring has certainly failed to deliver. But for those who simply wanted to push their countries into taking one important and necessary step in the right direction by breaking the prevailing political stalemate in their societies, then, the Arab Spring has definitely lived up to expectations. Continue reading “Has the Arab Spring Lived Up to Expectations?” →

Syria Endgame – An Interview on BrianLehrer TV

Interview on BrianLehrer.TV

As 2012 draws to a close, we re-assess the Arab Spring and discuss U.S. intervention in Syria and relations with Iran. Joining us are: Leslie Gelb, former New York Times columnist and assistant secretary of state in the Carter administration, and now, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations; Ervand Abrahamian, distinguished professor of Iranian and Middle Eastern history and politics at Baruch College; and Syrian human rights activist, Ammar Abdulhamid, a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and founder of the Tharwa Foundation.