Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords

Prepared for a briefing that took place in Washington on January 15, 2013.

MAP OF CONFLICT

The regime is continuing its policy of holding on to big cities and main roads while surrendering the surrounding countryside to rebels. However, it seems inevitable now that the regime might be forced to relinquish its control over the north and northeast soon, a process that could begin within the next 2 to 3 months. This move will include Aleppo City, and the provinces of Deir Ezzor, Raqqa and Hassakeh. Continue reading “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords” →

The Creation of An Unbridgeable Divide

openDemocracy | 24 January 2013

Syria’s civil war is now strongly characterised by militias identifying along sectarian lines. The growing divide between Sunnis and Alawites has profound implications for Syria, and the Middle East. Continue reading “The Creation of An Unbridgeable Divide” →

Obama gives Syrian rebels recognition

Quoted in the Washington Times.

Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian human rights activist and a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told a national security conference in Washington last week that the Obama administration suffered from an “absolute lack of vision,” and as a result, he predicted, Syria would be a problem for “many years to come.”

Syrian rebels gain, but for how long?

NOW Lebanon: Alex Rowell, December 6, 2012

The resignation of Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi on Monday is just one of a series of recent setbacks for the embattled regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The news follows a week of unprecedented military victories for rebel forces, including the shooting down of two regime aircraft in as many days, a pledge by NATO to deploy Patriot surface-to-air missiles along the Turkish-Syrian border, and a diplomatic breakthrough that could see European nations arming the opposition by March 2013. Continue reading “Syrian rebels gain, but for how long?” →