Turkey’s Crackdown On Arms Shipments To Syria Could Help Al Qaeda And Harm Moderate Rebels

Turkey’s Crackdown On Arms Shipments To Syria Could Help Al Qaeda And Harm Moderate Rebels – The Daily Beast.

It’s really strange how everything conspired from the very beginning to undermine moderates and support the rise of extremism among the protesters. Assad and his allies needed this, and they worked assiduously for it, but what did the others, Turkey, Saudi, Qatar, U.S., hope to achieve? What do they hope to achieve? Perhaps exactly what’s happening today. The “mistakes” that led to this are simply too numerous and consistent to be ascribed to chance. No, I am not endorsing some conspiracy, but the political agendas that crisscrossed the Syrian map have always been intricate and complex. There is always a bargain involved in supporting regime change in a country like Syria. In this case, there were simply too many of them. The opposition failure to understand this and to be more proactive about it helped pave the way as well to this worst of outcomes. And it’s far from over.

Syria and the perils of proxy war

Syria and the perils of proxy war – latimes.com.

Reducing the current proxy-war situation in Syria to a Saudi-Iranian competition over regional hegemony is a gross oversimplification and overlooks serious involvement by other actors, including Turkey, Qatar, Israel, U.S., France, the U.K. and Russia, to name but the most visible operators.  There is much at stake in Syria for many different powers around the world. The Saudi-Iranian proxy-war could not unfold without support, or lack thereof, from these other players.

Iran’s Turkish Gold Rush

Iran’s Turkish Gold Rush.

With too many parochial interests and too many corrupt politicians around few sanction regimes can ever achieve their intended goals, especially when they drag out for years. The same applies for wars, after a certain period conflicts become “stable” and self-sustaining as a result of a convergence of parochial interests. But conflicts remain unpredictable and often have too many unintended consequences. Those betting on “stabilizing” the Syrian conflict by transforming it into a contained low intensity conflict with minimal impact on neighboring countries are deluding themselves. The impact of the devolution of Syria will be felt globally, there are simply too many overlapping interests, too many players involved, and too many people watching and drawing lessons that may not too “kosher.”

Unreasonable!

Jimmy Carter and Robert Pastor wrote:

“These preconditions should not be controversial, but they mean that Syrian factions — and their supporters — would have to back down from their former unreasonable demands.”

Yeah, I guess demanding freedom from tyranny is really quite unreasonable. That’s why I guess, the U.S. did not support us, and pro-democracy activists and moderate rebels were left to face Assad’s killing machine, oiled by Russia and Iran, on their own, seeing that Saudi, Qatar and Turkey supported the other extreme.

Continue reading “Unreasonable!”